Tuesday, March 17, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament – Field Analysis



We are coming off projecting 66 of the Field of 68: we had in Temple & Colorado State vs. the committee awarding bids to UCLA & Boise State, who were our last two cuts.

Here we test each region’s strength using SBPI on three levels:
  1. Entire region (taking the top SBPI rating of the teams involved in the 4 play-in games)
  2. Top 8 in each region
  3. Top 4 in each region

AVG RANK
TOP 8 AVG RANK
TOP 4 AVG RANK
SOUTH
78.8
23.8
16.5
EAST
84.3
22.0
10.3
WEST
66.2
20.0
8.0
MIDWEST
66.1
30.3
30.8

For comparison purposes here is what the 2014 NCAA Tournament field appeared:


AVG RANK
TOP 8 AVG RANK
TOP 4 AVG RANK
SOUTH
72.8
20.8
14.0
EAST
76.4
20.0
12.0
WEST
70.8
21.9
13.0
MIDWEST
65.7
24.4
14.3

The lower a score above the tougher the region – meaning we see some interesting scenarios.  We can really see numerically here how EASY the Midwest, Kentucky’s region sets up.  Why does it appear as such on in the Top 4 & Top 8 categories?  Because #3 seed Notre Dame is ranked #54 in SBPI & #4 seed Maryland checks in at #57.

Let’s also check in on the mid/low major teams that are making their 2nd straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament via earning an automatic berth & compare their SBPI rating this year to last year:


2015
2014
ALBANY
167.4
151.2
COASTAL CAROLINA
190.4
130.6
GONZAGA
327.2
287.9
HARVARD
248.5
273.1
MANHATTAN
179.4
244.8
NEW MEXICO STATE
187.2
199.3
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
170.2
253.6
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
233.7
190.4
TEXAS SOUTHERN
144.7
118.0
VCU
366.6
362.5
WOFFORD
208.0
175.6


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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015

Sunday, March 15, 2015

NCAA Tournament 2015 - FINAL PROJECTED FIELD



This is our FINAL installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament.  Last season we missed just one team, hoping to sweep the board in 2015! 

Automatic Bid labeled *
Teams listed in my projected-Curve order within conference

America East: Stony Brook*
American Athletic: SMU*, Cincinnati, Temple
Atlantic Ten: VCU*, Dayton, Davidson
ACC: Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame*, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State
Atlantic Sun: North Florida*
Big 12: Kansas, Iowa State*, Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State
Big East: Villanova*, Providence, Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s
Big Sky: Eastern Washington*
Big South: Coastal Carolina*
Big Ten: Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana
Big West: UC Irvine*
Colonial: Northeastern*
Conference USA: UAB*
Horizon: Valparaiso*
Ivy: Harvard*
MAAC: Manhattan*
MAC: Buffalo*
MEAC: Hampton*
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*, Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State, Colorado State, Wyoming*
Northeast: Robert Morris*
Ohio Valley: Belmont*
Pac 12: Arizona*, Utah, Oregon
Patriot: Lafayette*
SEC: Kentucky*, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss
Southern: Wofford*
Southland: Stephen F. Austin*
SWAC: Texas Southern*
Summit: North Dakota State*
Sun Belt: Georgia State*
West Coast: Gonzaga*, BYU
WAC: New Mexico State*

*IF UCONN EARNS AAC AUTOMATIC BID I WOULD DROP BYU FROM AT-LARGE*

Multiple bid conferences (total of 47 bids in 11 conferences; 21 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

B10 (7)
B12 (7)
ACC (6)
BE (6)
SEC (5)
P12 (3)
AAC (3)
A10 (3)
MWC (3)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)


Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015