Here is our 3rd installment of the NBA SBPI
[SportsBoss Power Index]. As a reminder
this model uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team
effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas. New this season I have added in a solid
metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to better tie into my indices
in other sports where higher marks are better scores (if you look back at last
season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower grades were better). Here is where each team stands through last
night’s action:
Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide
some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or
lower than expected.
Memphis:
the Grizzlies remain in the top spot for the third consecutive installment of
the SBPI although the Cavaliers are making a run towards that reign.
Golden State:
the Warriors do have the best record in the NBA at 19-2 but check in at #11
based on a 21st ranked offense – they do not grade well in any
offensive category besides EFG%, which is obviously the most important sparking
their 19-2 record. Amazingly they have
the best DEF EFG% mark in the league as well.
To date they have played just below an average SOS, but look for that to
ramp up significantly in the coming weeks when they face a majority of stronger
Western Conference teams.
Top 11: of
those teams in the SBPI nobody has more than 7 losses
Western
Conference: of the top 15 teams in the above ratings 11 are from the
West, and that does not include Oklahoma City who figure to make a big climb
following the addition of Durant & Westbrook into their lineup
Philadelphia &
New York: by far these two are the worst teams in the NBA & frankly
we do not see that changing for most of the season
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
Team
|
Home PR
|
Away PR
|
|
Memphis
|
117.7
|
113.0
|
|
Golden
State
|
112.9
|
108.9
|
|
San
Antonio
|
115.9
|
111.9
|
|
Portland
|
113.0
|
109.0
|
|
Atlanta
|
113.1
|
109.1
|
|
Washington
|
113.3
|
109.3
|
|
Toronto
|
113.1
|
109.6
|
|
Dallas
|
113.1
|
109.6
|
|
New
Orleans
|
116.5
|
113.0
|
|
Houston
|
114.0
|
110.5
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
113.8
|
110.3
|
|
Cleveland
|
115.5
|
112.5
|
|
Milwaukee
|
113.6
|
110.6
|
|
Denver
|
111.5
|
108.5
|
|
Phoenix
|
112.6
|
110.1
|
|
Sacramento
|
111.1
|
108.6
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
111.7
|
109.2
|
|
Charlotte
|
112.9
|
110.9
|
|
Boston
|
113.1
|
111.1
|
|
Miami
|
113.2
|
111.2
|
|
Brooklyn
|
111.7
|
109.7
|
|
Chicago
|
115.0
|
113.0
|
|
Indiana
|
113.2
|
111.2
|
|
Utah
|
110.2
|
108.2
|
|
Minnesota
|
114.5
|
112.5
|
|
New
York
|
103.9
|
101.9
|
|
Orlando
|
111.1
|
109.1
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
113.1
|
111.1
|
|
Detroit
|
112.9
|
110.9
|
|
Philadelphia
|
106.9
|
104.9
|
These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. As always
let’s take a look at Thursday night’s action using the above ratings:
Cleveland at Oklahoma City (-4.5): the above ratings would
set this at CLE -1 but that is largely based on the results the Thunder gave us
without Russell Westbrook & Kevin Durant in the lineup. Is the addition of those two worth 5.5
points? Probably even more than that –
but knowing how well Lebron has played against the Thunder during his career,
and the fact Cleveland is hot coming into this one I would suggest no action on
this game.
Houston (-1) at Sacramento: my ratings have this game about
SAC -1 so a 2pt variance is not enough to warrant action strictly on line value
derived from this exercise.
Since it remains too early in the season to use performance
and its impact on Pythagorean record we will skip that portion until the
numbers settle in some & they can be used to better forecast. Instead let’s take a look at where each team
stands ATS wise thus far:
|
ATS RECORD
|
|||
|
Team
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
|
Golden
State
|
15
|
6
|
71.4%
|
|
Milwaukee
|
15
|
8
|
65.2%
|
|
Atlanta
|
13
|
8
|
61.9%
|
|
Toronto
|
13
|
9
|
59.1%
|
|
Sacramento
|
13
|
9
|
59.1%
|
|
Orlando
|
14
|
10
|
58.3%
|
|
Portland
|
12
|
9
|
57.1%
|
|
Indiana
|
12
|
9
|
57.1%
|
|
Memphis
|
12
|
9
|
57.1%
|
|
Phoenix
|
12
|
10
|
54.5%
|
|
Dallas
|
13
|
11
|
54.2%
|
|
Houston
|
11
|
10
|
52.4%
|
|
New
Orleans
|
11
|
10
|
52.4%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
11
|
10
|
52.4%
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
10
|
10
|
50.0%
|
|
San
Antonio
|
11
|
11
|
50.0%
|
|
Boston
|
10
|
10
|
50.0%
|
|
Denver
|
10
|
11
|
47.6%
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
10
|
11
|
47.6%
|
|
Utah
|
10
|
12
|
45.5%
|
|
Cleveland
|
9
|
11
|
45.0%
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
9
|
12
|
42.9%
|
|
Miami
|
9
|
12
|
42.9%
|
|
Washington
|
9
|
12
|
42.9%
|
|
Chicago
|
9
|
12
|
42.9%
|
|
Brooklyn
|
8
|
12
|
40.0%
|
|
Minnesota
|
8
|
12
|
40.0%
|
|
Charlotte
|
7
|
12
|
36.8%
|
|
New
York
|
8
|
16
|
33.3%
|
|
Detroit
|
6
|
16
|
27.3%
|
How good are bookmakers at setting odds? Eight of the thirty teams in the NBA are
currently playing to within one game of .500 in their ATS record & twelve
are within two games of .500. As a
reminder from a previous entry you can use these ATS records along with the
ratings above to locate teams to play on or against – you would be looking for
strong teams in the ratings with weak ATS records & vice versa.
Thanks for reading.
In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article
approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football
winds down we will post this article more frequently.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
