Wednesday, October 29, 2014

NFL 2014: Analysis through Week Eight



This is our second installment of the 2014 NFL season discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team.  Let’s jump right into the #’s!

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different stats on both sides of the ball:


OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL TEAM

Blended


Wins

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

SOS

TOM
6
DEN
54.4
3

44.8
2

99.1
1

2

4
3
NO
59.4
1

33.6
24

92.9
2

21

(5)
6
DAL
56.9
2

35.1
17

92.0
3

26

(2)
5
IND
52.1
4

39.8
8

91.8
4

17

(1)
5
BAL
51.2
5

38.7
11

89.9
5

30

0
4
KC
46.4
10

42.1
4

88.6
6

5

(2)
4
MIA
46.2
12

42.0
5

88.2
7

23

2
4
SEA
49.3
7

38.6
12

87.9
8

8

1
4
SF
45.1
14

41.7
6

86.8
9

1

4
6
DET
36.4
26

48.6
1

85.0
10

31

1
5
PIT
50.1
6

33.8
22

83.8
11

32

1
5
PHI
43.9
17

38.3
13

82.1
12

15

(7)
5
SD
47.9
8

33.9
20

81.9
13

24

4
6
NE
46.4
9

35.1
18

81.5
14

29

11
3
WAS
43.7
19

37.8
14

81.4
15

22

(8)
3
CHI
43.9
16

36.4
16

80.4
16

27

(3)
6
ARI
40.7
24

38.9
10

79.6
17

6

9
5
BUF
35.8
27

43.2
3

79.0
18

19

7
3
NYG
43.5
20

35.0
19

78.5
19

4

0
4
HOU
44.7
15

33.7
23

78.4
20

20

4
4
CIN
46.4
11

31.9
25

78.3
21

8

4
5
GB
46.0
13

31.4
26

77.4
22

16

8
1
NYJ
35.7
28

40.0
7

75.7
23

11

(15)
4
CLE
43.2
21

31.3
27

74.5
24

12

6
2
ATL
43.8
18

29.3
28

73.0
25

25

(2)
3
MIN
33.2
30

39.6
9

72.8
26

28

(1)
2
TEN
37.1
25

33.9
21

70.9
27

14

0
3
CAR
41.8
22

29.0
29

70.8
28

13

4
2
STL
41.6
23

27.4
31

69.1
29

4

(3)
1
JAC
32.1
31

36.9
15

69.0
30

10

(10)
0
OAK
31.6
32

27.7
30

59.4
31

9

(7)
1
TB
33.7
29

24.3
32

58.0
32

18

(4)

  • The Denver Broncos are the top rated team & frankly it’s not close.  Not only are they performing at an extremely high level with a 99.1 rating their blended SOS is also 2nd toughest in the NFL, a very unusual dynamic – playing so well & versus a tough schedule.
  • Many will be surprised seeing the Saints at #2 but they are playing solid football overall – however, as we have seen in a few games already this season, their TOM of (5) is the worst of the Top 11 teams in the ratings.  As we saw on SNF this past week vs. Green Bay, if they can hang onto the football they remain an extremely dangerous squad, especially offensively.
  • Five of the top seven teams are from the AFC
  • The top 5 teams in the overall ratings are also the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – that is not a big surprise since football has really shifted towards more of an offensive mentality over the last decade or so
  • Seattle checks in at #8, perhaps below what many expect; however, remember last season although they were in the Top 2 with Denver their TOM was +20 – this season it’s just +1.
Next is my red flag/green light identification.  Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings & TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

  • Red Flag: CLE, BUF, ARI
  • Green Light: NO, WAS, NYJ
Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape.  Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):


Rating
NFL
NE
49
1
AW
51
2
AN
61
3
AE
62
4
NW
63
5
NN
74
6
AS
81
7
NS
87
8

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk8.  As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.  For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31, 2012.







AFC East
Wins
Loss

NFC East
Wins
Loss
NE
9.85
6.15

DAL
10.53
5.47
BUF
8.51
7.49

PHI
9.68
6.32
MIA
8.42
7.58

NYG
7.40
8.60
NYJ
4.56
11.44

WAS
7.10
8.90







AFC North



NFC North


BAL
9.84
6.16

DET
10.62
5.38
CIN
9.20
6.80

GB
9.42
6.58
PIT
9.01
6.99

CHI
7.14
8.87
CLE
8.25
7.75

MIN
6.53
9.47







AFC South



NFC South


IND
10.00
6.00

CAR
7.63
8.37
HOU
8.31
7.69

NO
8.23
7.77
TEN
5.17
10.83

ATL
5.56
10.44
JAC
3.41
12.59

TB
3.91
12.09







AFC West



NFC West


DEN
12.77
3.24

ARI
10.20
5.81
SD
9.33
6.67

SEA
9.80
6.20
KC
8.98
7.02

SF
8.99
7.01
OAK
2.44
13.56

STL
5.22
10.78







Playoffs



Playoffs


#6 CIN @ #3 NE


#6 PHI @ #3 ARI

#5 SD @ #4 BAL


#5 SEA @ #4 CAR








#1 DEN



#1 DET


#2 IND



#2 DAL



Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season.  Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game.  I simply add up the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played, and it all comes to my projected standings listed above.  One aspect of this analysis to note is the teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to where team’s actual records will finish (especially early in the season) – meaning, using this analysis to project order of finish, playoff berths and seeds is very accurate, but using it to project actual wins and losses will not be as accurate since teams on the outer edges of wins (very high or very low) will typically win more/less than projected.  

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings.  My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread.  These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.  For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:


Overall
DEN
1
SEA
2
IND
3
DAL
4
NO
5
BAL
5
SF
7
KC
8
SD
8
PHI
10
DET
11
NE
11
ARI
13
GB
14
CIN
15
MIA
16
PIT
16
WAS
18
NYG
19
CHI
20
HOU
21
CAR
22
CLE
23
BUF
24
NYJ
25
ATL
25
MIN
27
STL
28
TEN
29
OAK
30
TB
31
JAC
32

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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