OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
||||||
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
||
Miami
|
24
|
1
|
30
|
5
|
54
|
1
|
||
San
Antonio
|
32
|
7
|
23
|
4
|
55
|
2
|
||
Oklahoma
City
|
28
|
5
|
31
|
6
|
59
|
3
|
||
Washington
|
40
|
13
|
20
|
1
|
60
|
4
|
||
Indiana
|
44
|
14
|
20
|
1
|
64
|
5
|
||
Atlanta
|
44
|
14
|
20
|
1
|
64
|
5
|
||
L.A.
Clippers
|
24
|
1
|
41
|
12
|
65
|
7
|
||
Brooklyn
|
28
|
5
|
37
|
8
|
65
|
7
|
||
Houston
|
24
|
1
|
43
|
15
|
67
|
9
|
||
Golden
State
|
27
|
4
|
43
|
15
|
70
|
10
|
||
Dallas
|
34
|
8
|
38
|
9
|
72
|
11
|
||
Memphis
|
36
|
9
|
39
|
10
|
75
|
12
|
||
Chicago
|
39
|
11
|
36
|
7
|
75
|
12
|
||
Toronto
|
37
|
10
|
42
|
13
|
79
|
14
|
||
Portland
|
39
|
11
|
42
|
13
|
81
|
15
|
||
Charlotte
|
44
|
14
|
39
|
10
|
83
|
16
|
||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points. Here are
some key aspects to keep in mind when reviewing this data:
- Ratings (sum columns) are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.
- All ten statistics used to measure team performance are weighted equally in this analysis (hence team performance ratings; power ratings below weight each statistic properly to best forecast points scored & allowed). Using an equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping efforts when properly applied.
- All statistics are adjusted to represent performance per 48 minutes which normalizes the data set for overtime periods and allows us to compare teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs.
Next let’s display the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base (alphabetical order):
HOME
|
AWAY
|
|
Atlanta
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
Brooklyn
|
7.4
|
4.4
|
Charlotte
|
2.3
|
0.3
|
Chicago
|
4.5
|
1.5
|
Dallas
|
6.5
|
3.5
|
Golden
State
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
Houston
|
7.3
|
3.3
|
Indiana
|
7.8
|
3.8
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
9.5
|
5.5
|
Memphis
|
6.4
|
3.4
|
Miami
|
10.8
|
5.8
|
Oklahoma
City
|
7.8
|
2.8
|
Portland
|
4.7
|
0.7
|
San
Antonio
|
11.2
|
6.2
|
Toronto
|
4.0
|
1.0
|
Washington
|
7.0
|
5.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.
By their nature playoff power ratings are hyper-sensitive to
variance in performance, and those listed above are based solely on playoff
performance to date (small sample sizes in all cases, some extremely small such
as Charlotte). These are a solid guide/starting
point but should also be utilized in combination with my Final Regular Season
Power Ratings (posted to my blog on April 20th) to test for true
line value.
Based on these ratings – which again only incorporate
playoff results through yesterday’s Game 4 between Oklahoma City & San
Antonio on May 27th – here are my lines on the Conference Final
games so far (you can use figures above for games going forward – but since the
model is fluid & adjusts ratings based on each game there will be small
fluctuations for each team still playing):
[#1] PACERS -2 [#2] heat Gm1: heat -1.5 Gm2: heat -2
[#2] HEAT -7
[#1] pacers Gm3: HEAT -6 Gm4: HEAT -6
[#1] SPURS -8.5
[#2] thunder Gm1: SPURS -6 Gm2:
SPURS -5.5
[#2] THUNDER -1.5 [#1] spurs Gm3: THUNDER -2.5 Gm4: THUNDER -2
*Remember, especially in the playoffs, line value is only one aspect of
the entire handicapping process & should not be used by itself as a
decision making tool. I also only
consider a side to have value if the variance between the Vegas line & my
line is greater than 2 points.
Eastern Conference Line Value:
Game One we showed 3.5 value points on the Pacers & they
easily covered winning by 11
Game Two we showed 4.0 value points on the Pacers but Heat
won by 4, narrowly covering
Game Three we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Pacers but Heat
won by 12 & easily covered
Game Four we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Pacers but
Heat won by 12 & easily covered
KEY TAKEAWAY: OUR
POWER RATINGS SHOWED VALUE ON THE FIRST TWO GAMES OF THIS SERIES & WE
SPLIT. HOWEVER, IN GAME TWO WE ACTUALLY
RELEASED A STRONG 4* PLAY ON THE HEAT BASED ON THE ADDITIONAL ANGLES &
FACTORS WE DISCUSSED BRIEFLY ABOVE.
Western Conference Line Value:
Game One we showed 2.5 value points on the Spurs & they
easily covered winning by 17
Game Two we showed 3.0 value points on the Spurs & again
they easily covered winning by 35
Game Three we showed a slim 1.0 value point on Spurs but
Thunder won by 9 & covered
Game Four we showed an even slimmer 0.5 value point on Spurs
but Thunder won by 13 & covered
KEY TAKEAWAY: OUR
POWER RATINGS SHOWED VALUE ON THE FIRST TWO GAMES OF THIS SERIES & BOTH
GAMES WERE WINNERS.
Keep in mind, when doing your handicapping on the NBA
Playoffs, you must be able to:
- Identify line value using both regular season & playoff power ratings
- Recognize public sides vs. sharp money (I do not utilize this strategy in other sports besides NBA & NHL playoff series from time to time - "sharp" money is not a real term)
- Realize the importance of specific games to certain teams
This will be my final NBA article of the season. Hopefully you were able to learn a little
about performance & power ratings, and have applied some of my thoughts to
your own handicapping.
Thanks for reading, and I look forward to next NBA season
already!
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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