Wednesday, May 29, 2013

NFL 2012 Season in Review – Part I

The 2012 regular season was completed some 5 months ago – so let’s take a closer look at my models and statistics, review some of the key data points, and discuss which indicators are solid when projecting strengths of certain teams.  The first metrics we will examine are my performance ratings model (PR).  Below shows each team, broken down by offense, defense and total performance.  In addition to those metrics I have also included blended SOS rating (1 is the toughest, and my formula for blended SOS is 75% opponents performance ratings and 25% opponents record), along with SU wins for each team – the teams are sorted according to total performance rating.

OFF
RANK

DEF
RANK

TOTAL
RANK

SOS

WINS
DEN
52.2
3

50.4
1

102.6
1

25

13
SF
47.8
5

47.4
2

95.3
2

18

11
SEA
48.4
4

44.9
5

93.3
3

8

11
NE
55.4
1

35.1
25

90.5
4

24

12
HOU
45.2
10

44.2
6

89.4
5

27

12
GB
46.0
8

43.3
7

89.3
6

20

11
WAS
53.1
2

33.8
28

86.9
7

22

10
PIT
39.6
20

47.3
3

86.9
8

31

8
CHI
38.9
22

45.8
4

84.6
9

10

10
ATL
46.4
6

36.4
21

82.8
10

29

13
CAR
45.3
9

37.3
17

82.6
11

11

7
CIN
39.4
21

43.1
8

82.5
12

28

10
BAL
41.7
15

40.0
13

81.7
13

13

10
DAL
42.7
13

38.0
15

80.7
14

7

8
DET
43.2
12

36.9
18

80.1
15

6

4
MIN
42.1
14

37.5
16

79.6
16

6

10
BUF
41.6
16

36.3
22

77.8
17

31

6
NYG
44.3
11

33.2
29

77.5
18

4

9
TB
40.8
17

36.7
19

77.5
18

19

7
SD
36.9
24

40.3
12

77.2
20

27

7
NYJ
33.2
29

42.5
10

75.8
21

17

6
STL
37.4
23

38.2
14

75.7
22

2

7
MIA
34.7
26

40.7
11

75.4
23

21

7
IND
39.8
19

34.9
26

74.7
24

32

11
PHI
39.9
18

34.3
27

74.2
25

14

4
NO
46.3
7

27.5
32

73.8
26

3

7
OAK
36.8
25

35.8
23

72.5
27

23

4
KC
34.4
27

35.3
24

69.7
28

15

2
CLE
32.6
30

36.4
20

69.0
29

9

5
ARI
24.5
32

43.0
9

67.5
30

1

5
TEN
34.3
28

31.9
30

66.2
31

13

6
JAC
30.4
31

31.9
30

62.3
32

16

2

The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the statistics I utilize to track true team performance.  Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game, 80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 played average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season. 
A very important factor when developing any models to numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance in the same stat.  For example, if one was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid running the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes 6 times for 42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for 100 yards on 20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than likely team B would represent a stronger running game then team A even though if you only use the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion.  Let’s apply this reasoning to an example from the 2012 regular season:
  • DEN was the #14 rushing offense in the NFL according to my statistics.  There was a significant difference between their yards per rush ranking of #27 vs. their total rushing yards ranking of #15.  Why would there be this discrepancy?  One reason is likely because DEN was often ahead in their games, and more relying on their ground game to stall out the clock when the game had already been decided versus using their rushing attack as their main mode of transportation during the critical stages of each game.
In addition, SOS is very important; it is actually flat out critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are before rushing to state one team is better because their statistics say so.  That phenomenon also needs to be applied to unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams down into rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use.  Once again let’s apply this reasoning to an example from the 2012 regular season – here are the top 5 rushing offenses according to my numbers last year, with the corresponding SOS for their opponents rush defense:
  • WAS: #1 rushing offense vs. #26 opponent’s rushing defense
  • MIN: #2 rushing offense vs. #15 opponent’s rushing defense
  • SF: #3 rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense
  • SEA: #4 rushing offense vs. #7 opponent’s rushing defense
  • NE: #5 rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense
After including category specific SOS we can see that although the Redskins posted the #1 rushing offense in the NFL according to my stats they accomplished this feat versus the 7th easiest schedule of opponent rushing defenses; conversely, we see the Seahawks at #4 in rushing offense, but they performed at that high level vs. the 7th toughest schedule of opponent rushing defense.  As you can clearly see, including stat/category specific SOS can really assist in testing the true strength of a team’s performance.
Let’s take a closer look at the table on first page, and focus on the playoff teams.  The top 7 teams made the playoffs, then 3 of the next 4 missed (ATL only team that earned a berth); the final 4 spots were comprised of teams rated #12 CIN, #13 BAL, #16 MIN & #24 IND – which is relatively in line with the type of team rankings we see making the playoffs over the last couple seasons.  For comparative purposes DEN’s mark of 102.6 was the highest full season rating since this model has been tracking results commencing in 2008; on the flip side JAC’s rating of 62.3, the worst of the 2012 NFL season, was still above the worst rating of the 2011 season, IND, who checked in at 58.4.  Speaking of the Colts, see more about their 2012 season.
Next, let’s use the overall performance ratings and compare those to certain team’s corresponding records – indentifying which teams stand out for good or bad as that could be a solid indicator of upcoming success of failure:
  • PIT [8-8]: the Steelers were easily the highest ranked team not to post an above .500 record.  For the 2012 Steelers the problem was not on defense, where they continued to post solid results, checking in at #3; it was an offense that was just #20 in the NFL, as they struggled through many injuries and an inability to run the football (rushing offense was #25 in the NFL).  In an improving division that has seen CIN reach the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, along with the defending champion Baltimore Ravens, they need to get back to their bread and butter, running the football, to execute a turnaround.
  • CAR [7-9]: the Panthers were #11 in the performance ratings, suggesting a borderline playoff team.  However, their 2012 story was that of a tough schedule – their SOS was #11, with only two teams ahead of them in the performance ratings facing a tougher schedule.  CAR suffered many tough, close defeats last season – and if those games flip, and the defense continues improving, there is a lot to like about CAR’s chances heading into 2013.
  • DET [4-12]: the Lions were the biggest underachieving record team of 2012 posting the third worst record in the NFL, yet settling into the #15 spot in the performance ratings – which typically corresponds to that of an 8-8 squad.  What impacted the Lions?  First was an SOS that was rated #6 in the NFL – notice no team above the Lions in the performance ratings faced a tougher schedule.  Secondly and almost of equal importance was a TOM that was (16) on the season – good for 3rd worst in the NFL.  Time and time again we stress the point about TOM – perform well in that area and your chances for a .500 or above season are greatly enhanced; perform poorly there, especially amongst the worst in the NFL and you have no chance at reaching .500.
  • IND [11-5]: no question about it the Colts were the biggest benefactors from breaks as far as records go last year posting 11 wins, and reaching the playoffs in rookie QB Andrew Luck’s inaugural season.  The Colts rated just #24 overall in the performance ratings – a spot that does not even correlate to a .500 season, let alone a playoff berth.  What drove their record so much higher than their true performance?  The #1 factor was their SOS of #32, the easiest in the NFL.  Every other statistic I track pointed to a sub .500 record, so be very aware of a potential big drop by the Colts in 2013.
Top 5 Offenses:
1.       NE:  no surprise here as the Patriots and Tom Brady were rated #2 offensively in each of the prior 3 seasons before securing the top spot last year.   The top rated offense was fueled by a rushing attack that was ranked #5, passing game ranked #3, and a miscellaneous statistical bucket I track (for stats that are not either directly related to passing or rushing such as total first downs, time of possession, turnovers, etc…..) that was rated #1 in the NFL.  Add it all up and the Patriots were the most robust offense in the NFL last season – and much more efficient in their rushing attack than many perhaps expected to see.
2.       WAS:  another rookie QB, this time Robert Griffin III, led the Redskins to the playoffs and their best offense rating since I have been tracking these statistics.  Previously, starting in 2011 and working backwards, the Skins offense was ranked #24, #29, #22 in those three seasons – which just goes to show what a dynamic QB can do for a franchise, especially when working with one of the best offensive minds in the game, Mike Shanahan.
3.       DEN:  like the Redskins above, the Broncos had not enjoyed an offense ranked in the Top 20 in any one season since I started tracking this in 2009 until last season, when new QB Peyton Manning enjoyed a huge season and led Denver to the #3 overall offense in the NFL.  Although the Broncos were just #14 in rushing offense, their passing offense led the NFL, along with their miscellaneous statistics.  Look for things to only improve offensively this season in the Mile High city as top slot WR Wes Welker left the Patriots to join rival Denver this offseason. 
4.       SEA:  continuing with the theme of solid QB play for the top offenses in 2012, the Seahawks, led by rookie QB Russell Wilson, also make their first appearance in the Top 23 offenses in the NFL since my first season tracking these statistics in 2009.  Like Brady, Griffin III, and P. Manning above, strong and smart QB play, along with a balanced offense led the ‘Hawks resurgence last season.
5.       SF:  perhaps it’s surprising to see a pair of NFC West teams among the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – but that is precisely what occurred last season as just like the Seahawks, the Niners made a move at QB inserting Colin Kaepernick and the offense took off with his insertion.  SF continued with their trademark smash-mouth football of HC Jim Harbaugh, checking in with the #3 rushing attack – however, the addition of the athletic Kaepernick really pushed the offense to that next level, a key reason SF reached the Super Bowl last season.  CK is the 3rd first year starting QB of 2012 to lead a Top 5 offense.
Top 5 Defenses:
1.       DEN:  most people were drawn to the Broncos offense believing that is the unit that drove their 13-3 top mark in the NFL last season (tied with ATL).  But when breaking down the numbers the Broncos defense was the bigger part of the equation, checking in with the top rated unit in the NFL.  DEN truly had a dominant defense during the regular season checking in with the #1 rushing defense, #3 passing defense, and the #2 miscellaneous defense.  And the two statistics that are extremely critical to success in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball, yards per pass attempt allowed and sacks – the Broncos led the NFL in both areas.  With perhaps playing with a lead in 2013 even moreso than in 2012 look for the Broncos defense to once again get after the passer, force turnovers, and be among the best units in the NFL.
2.       SF: in 2011 SF had the #4 overall defense in the NFL; in 2012 that unit moved up to #2, only trailing the Broncos because of a pass defense that was ranked just #7 in the NFL.  As a sidebar the Broncos did truly have the better pass defense last season according to both the statistics, and stat specific SOS as DEN faced the #16 schedule versus opponents passing offenses, while SF faced the #19 schedule versus opponents passing offenses.  SF was one of only two teams (DEN) to rank in the Top 7 of all 4 buckets tracked.
3.       PIT:  second straight season the Steelers posted the 3rd best defense in the NFL, and the fourth straight season that PIT has posted a total defensive rank in the Top 4.  The Steelers continued playing championship level defense in 2012, but it was the offense that betrayed them settling in at #20 – the first time they were outside the Top 13 since inception in 2009.  Look for HC Mike Tomlin and his defense to continue playing strong heading into 2013, and for the Steelers to contend for at least a playoff berth come December.
4.       CHI:  the Bears posted their best mark since inception in 2009, settling in at #4 overall defensively.  However, like PIT, CHI’s offense checked in at #22, which is ironically consistent with each of the prior 3 seasons (’11 - #21, ’10 - #23, ’09 - #24).  Until the Bears improve on that side of the football they will struggle to compete with the elite of the NFC – which is a big reason ownership fired defensive minded HC Lovie Smith and brought in offensive mind Mark Trestman to run the team.  How Trestman communicates and works with QB Jay Cutler will go a long way to deciding how successful a season the Bears enjoy in a rugged NFC North.
5.       SEA: like division rival SF and former division rival DEN, the Seahawks are one of three teams to have ranked in the Top 5 both offensively and defensively last season.  The Seahawks defense has climbed the rankings steadily in each season since 2009 (#22, #21, #12, #5) – and a lot of the credit for that has to go to both HC Pete Carroll, along with former DC Gus Bradley (now HC in JAC).  New SEA DC Dan Quinn joins the staff from the Florida Gators where he was DC last year, and how quickly the team adjusts to his schemes will tell a big part of the success SEA could enjoy in 2013.


That will end the first installment of at least five we will put together covering the 2012 NFL Regular Season, identifying key indicators for potential success for failure in 2013.





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